For 30-years the Baltimore Colts and the Washington Redskins shared the same geographical area. Washington was in the Eastern Division. Baltimore was in the Western Division as a result of League reorganization following the absorption of teams from the All-America Football Conference. The two played a yearly tilt from Baltimore’s inclusion into the League in 1953 until 1968. Washington took it on the chin in all but 3 of the 15-games. The Colts would win back to back League Championships in 1958 and 1959 under Weeb Ewbank. Washington would have only 3-winning seasons during that run. Ironically Weeb coached the 1969 Jets to a Super Bowl victory over the same Colts. By 1983 Washington had lost two baseball franchises and the Colts had moved to Indiana. The Colts have retired 8-jersey numbers. Only one of them is from the Indianapolis era; Peyton Manning.
The season moves near the Quarter-Pole this week. Washington should have a little pep in their step following a well-earned upset of the defending World Champions last week. They are going to need it. The guys in the desert have decided the Indianapolis Colts are more than a Field Goal favorite. One can never forget that the League is a week-to-week experience. Last week both of these teams were 0-2 staring down the barrel of a 0-3 playoff death sentence. Both won home games. Both are in Divisions that will, most likely, only send one team to the post-season. Both have a major incentive to win this week. This should be a very competitive affair.
A Brief Exhale
Washington’s win last week provided the opportunity to exhale for a minute. A week earlier the wheels were off of the cart; a storm was right on top of them; and the sniping toward the Afterguard was halfway up the chart between Sporadic and Incessant. The difference in the air surrounding the team this week is so drastically different from what a loss would have produced it is difficult to quantify. Add in to the mix that the star Quarterback was not broken irreparably and this was a delightful week for a change.
The fixation of the media for the week was Daniels. First the question was whether he would go with the team to London. Then, whether he would practice was the subject of discussion. Then, the big enchilada: Would he play in London? He went, he practiced, and he will not play. He won’t even be the Emergency Quarterback #3. That would probably fall to Sam Hartman. If he’s in the game the team’s hopes for the win are likely sinking by the stern.
Early travel to London was the plan. It seems to be a smart play. London is 5-hours ahead. Kickoff is at 9:30 a.m. EDT. But, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium it will be 2:30 BST (British Summer Time; UTC +1). There’s a price to be paid when coming back next week. Yet, the Rams debacle in Australia, an extreme example points out the hazards of arriving in a new time zone late.
Defense?
The common denominator in these two teams is the play of the two Defenses. Both of them have allowed over 90-points in 3-games. Indy has allowed 91-points, Washington is a point worse at 92. Baltimore hung 41-points on the Colts in week 1 followed by 33 from Kansas City. Last week the Offensively-challenged Texans could only muster 17. Washington has given up 24 to the Eagles, 37 to the Cowboys, and 31 to Seattle. A key difference is turnovers. Washington has 3-takeaways, Indy has just 1.
On Offense this is close again; IND with 72-points, WAS with 75. And, again the difference is turnovers. Washington has lost only 1 (good for first in the League) while Indianapolis has lost 6. Another edge to the WFT is in Sacks; 3 vs 8. What counts more than the number of sacks is the Sack Rate. Washington is at 2.91% or 1 every 34 Dropbacks. The Colts are at 5.77% or 1 every 17-Dropbacks. That’s a big deal.
Neither one of these Offenses are lighting it up in the run game. More on the Washington side in a moment. The surprise is that Indianapolis isn’t dominating this category. In fact, Washington has out-gained the Blue and White 398 to 310-yards. Jonathan Taylor is a load. His season numbers don’t flash like what is expected. He’s averaging less than 4-yards per carry on 22-Attempts per game. That’s good for 7th overall in the League. But, it is more than 100-yards less than Kenneth Walker III in Kansas City. Where he really shines is in the Red Zone. His 4-Rushing TDs are 3-more than the entire Washington team.
Putting those numbers all together is says that the Offensive Line for Indianapolis is not particularly good.
Bill not Bell
Back in more agrarian times farmers would pick out the cow that consistently came to the feeding call first fitting them with a bell. With the bell clanging as she briskly walked the “Bell Cow” would lead the pack to dinner. Somehow the term came to be used for some one or thing carrying the majority of the workload. In football this fell to the Running Back taking the majority of running plays. Think Jim Brown or John Riggins and the concept of the “Bell Cow Back” takes shape. Washington doesn’t have one. As noted above Indianapolis does.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt aka “Bill” is a nice accent piece in a Running Back Room built as a committee venture. The other two Backs are Rachaad White and Kaytron Allen. White played through a shoulder injury to deliver a crucial 3rd Down in the 4-Minute Drill last week. He is out this week. Enter old friend Austin Ekeler. Note that Ekeler was signed BEFORE last week’s game and the White injury. Kaytron Allen didn’t get a snap in that Seattle game. Read into all that what you will. But, the bottom line is that this is not a robust rushing attack. The team is 8th on the Leaderboard for Rushing Yards. Take away Jayden Daniels‘ 100-yards, however and it drops to 18th.
Bill is not the guy to get 4 to 6-yards on a 1st-Down carry on a steady basis. He can and will pop one long just like last week. His 48-yard burst to the End Zone was him on full display. The run was called back due to a formation infraction that had nothing to do with the play. It was a legit run that he will reproduce from time to time. But, if you add that run back into his statistics they still don’t touch the boundaries of what defines a Bell Cow Back. For the baseball fans Bill is the player who hits 20-Home Runs, but has a batting average of .175.
Ekeler is the prototypical 3rd-Down Back. Back in the Glory Days of the early 1980’s the WFT had two 3rd-Down gems in Joe Washington and Nick Giaquinto. Those 2 combined for 74-Receptions producing 41-First Downs in 1983. Ekeler won’t reproduce those numbers. Still, he’s a good pass Receiver. His 17-game average is for 70-balls a season. Last year he was healthy for only 2-games. Way back when it got to 3rd Down the chant in TV Room would be “Third-and-Nick.” Think Third-and-Austin because there should be a fair amount of it.
Last week TV Analyst Greg Olsen was advocating for Washington to use short and quick passing plays to supplant the Run. With Ekeler here there may be more of that.
One final thought on the Run Game is that it’s an easy play to blame the Offensive Line. With all the noise about it leading into the season and early on in the season that’s understandable. It hasn’t been bad, however. That Seattle Defensive Front is one of if not the best in the game. The blocking in that 4-Minute Drill was excellent. And, the Sack Rate is outstanding. Obviously better blocking always helps. It looks from here that the limitations are coming more from the Running Back Room in terms of production.
Blitz Much?
The best Defense in the game belongs to Minnesota. They send extra people after the Quarterback some 68.4% of the time. It has produced 14-Sacks. No other team blitzes/dogs over 45%. That prompts the question that longtime NFL Executive Pat Kirwan asked this week, “Why don’t more teams do this?” His radio partner Jacob Hester gave the answer which didn’t register with either of them: “You have to have good Cornerback play.” Washington doesn’t.
Look, Dan Quinn and Adam Peters felt the belt to the fanny firsthand last year at Minnesota when the WFT was shut out. They had to leave that building thinking a Defense like that would look awesome in their building. So much so that they hired the Defensive Coordinator’s underling to be the DC here. He was going to bring in all that swarming chaos. He still might. The limitation is that Cornerback Room. Yes, Amik Robertson had a good week. The Room itself is not doing well. Mike Sainristil looks as lost as Amelia Earhart. What happened to that guy is a complete mystery. The other Corner is Rasul Douglas. He being in his 10th year and 6th team. The best of the bunch is second-year player Trey Amos. He broke a Fibula late last season. Upon returning to practice he promptly hurt his ankle. Amos could return next week. It wouldn’t be a moment too soon. Washington’s 42% Blitz/Dog rate is not what was envisioned.
The Internationals
The NFL desperately wants to go global. This season opened in Australia. Last week was a game in Brazil. Now it heads to London, a place that has hosted a number of games. Most of those involved the Jaguars. In fact there are two more of them this season in back-to-back weeks. This game isn’t a hot ticket, however. Seats priced at $325 (245-Pounds) were slashed to $105 (79-Pounds) this week. They had already been cut in August. That didn’t sit well with those buying early who paid full price. The League won’t comment because it doesn’t care about those patrons. Don’t forget what the League really cares about; they don’t want the TV audience to see empty seats in Tottenham Hotspur. That would damage the global initiative narrative.
Next week’s game there is between Philly and Jacksonville. That sold out quickly at higher ticket price points. The following week the game is at Wembly when Jacksonville plays Houston. There the Jaguars, not the League, are handling tickets. There are plenty available.
By the end of the decade there will be some vestige of International NFL football. Or maybe it will be a rival league emerging. Germany is the place for it. The old NFL Europe team in Germany did extremely well. We will have to watch it all play out. It does feel like the good ship NFL-Global entered some seas with a bit of chop to it. Maybe things slow down a bit.
Little of that matters to the Burgundy and Gold fans representing in London:
Try as you might to imagine is it even conceivable that Dan Snyder would climb up on a bar like Josh Harris and buy the faithful a Round?
With a Win…
The “Hope-o-Meter” needle moved up off the low peg last week. A win this week would get it up into an area where cautious optimism is a viable option. The same formula applies: Ball Security, Ball, Run the Rock, and take full advantage of opportunities. If they do all of those then this game becomes very winnable. Add one more to the list to contain Taylor. If he gets loose then this game gets even more demanding.
Daniel Jones was a thorn in the side of Washington straight out of the gate. He won his first four-games against the WFT. Things cooled off after that. His career record is 5-2-1 against WAS. This year he’s thrown 3-TDs and 3-INTs. His best Receiver Alec Pierce is on the Injured Reserve. Washington really tried to sign him in the off-season. So, the passing attack is diminished.
Speaking of passing attacks and diminishment Terry McLaurin ended up on the injury list with a hamstring. It sounds like it’s more of a “Tug” than a “Pull.” The team went the cautious way with him not practicing the last two sessions. There was hope he would play Sunday. Later word says he will not.
Keep in mind something; Washington went into the season with 4-maybe 5 “Blues.” That’s the term for the highest-tier player in a color-driven scoring system. Championship-level teams have around 6 on average. Here, Jayden Daniels, Laremy Tunsil, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, and maybe Samuel Cosmi were the Blues. If McLaurin is out then 80% of the roster’s top-tier guys are out. That’s a tough pill to swallow and still be successful.
With or without Terry, the team needs to be ready to go. All the games are important. But, for this week this one is the most important.
Game Information
Indianapolis vs Washington
9:30 a.m EDT at Tottenham Hotspur, London, UK
Las Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 4.5-points
TV: NFL Network
Announcers: Dave Pasch, Kurt Warner, Jason Kelce
Radio: WBIG 100.3
Announcers: Bram Weinstein, London Fletcher, Grant Paulsen
Satellite: Sirius XM Channel 194 (Washington Feed)
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