Game #6: at San Francisco

Old Kezar Stadium was the home of the San Francisco 49ers from 1946-1970. The 49ers were a part of the All America Football Conference until 1950 when the Conference folded. There were some twists and turns at the end of the AAFC’s run. Buffalo had a decided advantage in attendance over a number of the teams. But, the Owner cashed out and joined the Cleveland Browns as a minority Owner. The Miami Seahawks became the Baltimore Colts. But, they lasted only as long as the 1950 season. 3-years later the League gave Baltimore a second chance with the remnants of the Dallas Texans. All through the AAFC years the 49ers were solid. They lost the final Championship Game to the Browns (who won all four of them). Kezar was a rough place to play per opposing players. The field was often in poor shape. And, the seagulls were omnipresent late in games. Artie Donovan claimed that the birds were expert dive bombers. San Fran closed the building with a loss to Dallas in the Conference Championship Game. They spent 43-years at Candlestick Park before moving some 38-miles to just south of the Bay at Levi’s Stadium.

This has been some week, eh? It started with the collective Burgundy-and-Gold nation screaming at their TV sets, “What are you doing?!!!” By the end of the week everyone in the organization short of the Water Boys were claiming that the snafu at the end of the Giants’ game was “On Me.” In the meantime the Sports Talk Radio and TV Talking Heads had drawn and quartered Head Coach Dan Quinn. It was a lot of mob mentality on full display. And, if you dared venture into the message boards the commentariat was looking for an even harsher fate, if one is possible for the Coach. It was a great week to tune it all out…as best one could. If the team gets thrashed on Monday at San Francisco, a definite possibility, the noise will only get louder and last longer as next week is a bye. It would be that much harder to ignore the racket. This isn’t a game to get back in the race. This is to gain a desperately needed foothold in stability.

Scoring Differentials

Football fans don’t see a lot of verbiage thrown at scoring differentials. Mostly the dialogue fixates on points-allowed. Last week’s announcing crew pointed out the dichotomy between the first-Quarter for Washington’s Defense and the remaining three. It’s a compelling picture. By Quarter here are the stats through 5-games for points allowed: Q1 13; Q2 41; Q3 40, and Q4 55-points. That’s not pretty.

Baseball fans place great stock in “Run Differential.” There are even projections for a team’s record based on the stat. As noted above Football does not do the equivalent. So, let’s look at the scoring differential for the team: Q1 +9; Q2 -9; Q3 -16, and Q4 -18. Add that up and the team is dead even at 0-points in differential for the first half and -34 for the second half. That’s enough to place them at 5th worst in the League. There does appear to be some relationship between the scoring differential and record. Of those 5-worst scoring differential teams only Washington and Arizona have 1-win. The collective record of the 5-worst is a ghastly 2-22-1 prior to action this weekend. Exactly half of the League is in minus-points territory.

Conversely the top five teams in the category are a combined 22-2 again prior to action this weekend. Yes, it’s only one tie away from the mirror image at the bottom. Who is on top of the list? Naturally it is the next opponent the 49ers. They are a +30 in the first half and a +31 in the second. Plus 61-points against -34 is a spread of 95-points. The Point Spread from the guys in the desert is 7.5-points. That feels smaller than the numbers would indicate. There is a silly little fan poll up on THE ATHLETIC for who will win this game. As of this morning only 4% of nearly 6,000 respondents thought it would be Washington. That feels about right.

NFC (L)east

The funk over the Division continues unabated. Before last week’s game the Eagles and Cowboys both lost. Washington was playing the remaining Division team. This week the table is even more prepared: All three of the other Division teams have lost. One win, however unlikely tonight changes everything for the better.

Philadelphia is in a funk. Yes, that’s a repeat line because it’s worth repeating. The injuries have gotten the best of them. Yesterday they lost to a spunky Charlotte team. It features a Running Back in Chuba Hubbard that carried the freight some 28-times for 120-yards and 2-TDs. Late in the game the Eagles could not stop him short of the line to gain. The Eagles, as a team ran for 35-yards. Their Franchise QB is out with a scary blood clot in his leg. He’ll be out for the Washington rematch. Bryce Young found a go-to Defensive Back in Cooper DeJean. David Blough did the same thing during the first game of the season. With the Phillies going quietly into the night October has turned out to be Fright Night time in the so-called City of Brotherly Love. Ain’t it great?

Dallas is the shiny toy that comes out of the box on Christmas morning that refuses to operate when the batteries are installed. The fascinating thing is that the Cowboys, unlike Philly and Washington are relatively healthy. They have their stars suited up and starting only to produce little. Last night they were shut out during the first-half. Green Bay has a nice Defense that is right on the cut line for the top-third in the League. They looked like the ’86 Bears last night against Dak and his posse. In fact, Dak was throwing gopher balls to the other team. That’s something he doesn’t do often having thrown only 3 through the first 4-games. And, the Defense that was the open pursuit in the off-season is not producing. Finally, the object of intense speculation during the Draft was Safety Caleb Downs. He was rumored to be coming here. Instead he went to Dallas where he was told to lose weight as they were converting him to a Nickel Corner. It hasn’t worked. Last night he was back at Safety doing nothing positive. Green Bay dropped 2-TDs. Plain dropped them. Dallas is lost.

Finally, the New York Football Giants were losing to the Saints in New Jersey. Jameis Winston, as he often does reverted into a turnover machine. The Saints’ Defense is in the same zip code as Washington’s; near the bottom. No matter. Jameis got sacked 4-times and threw 2-picks. New York scored the first 10-points of the game and the last 17. In between New Orleans scored 34-points. JJ McCarthy engineered the last 17-points. It wasn’t enough to win the game. But, it was enough to start a Quarterback controversy. Have fun with the New York media over that, John Harbaugh. Again, the Giants couldn’t run the ball going for 84-yards on 20-carries. Part of that was a soft benching of Cam Scattebo. He did not get a single carry. That was the Harbaugh discipline for fumbling last week at Washington.

Is there any team in this Division that looks like it could go far into the playoffs? Forget the answer at the moment. What really counts is what they look like in December provided they can scrounge together enough wins to claim this sickly Division. Dallas has all of that talent being squandered. The Giants have Harbaugh. Philly has nothing. And, Washington has Jayden Daniels. One of those is going to the playoffs. It will be the team that comes out of its sleepwalking episode the first.

‘Niners

This is an excellent team. But, you knew that. They are 3rd on Offense and 4th on Defense overall. The design of the team is its one vulnerability: It’s old. There are stars everywhere; on Offense, on Defense, and on the Injury List. This week Deebo Samuel is out as is Nick Bosa. If Mike Evans plays then that will be the result of a “Rib Block” set of injections into the intercostal nerves. It will get him through the game if he doesn’t take a shot to the ribs during the contest. He’s a key to the game. He’s caught 24-balls. They were good for 22-First Downs. Between he and George Kittle they have accounted for over one-half of the team total First Downs. Kittle is a load. And, he’s a Tight End which has been a problem for Washington in coverage. Expect to see a lot of Kittle.

Christian McCaffrey had some 413-touches last year. That’s too many. He’s on a pace for 270-odd rushing attempts and pass receptions this year. Someone got the memo to not wear out the unicorn.

Brock Purdy is an amazing story. We all know he was “Mister Irrelevant” being the last player selected in the Draft. The backstory is that the 49ers weren’t going to draft him. They were hoping to sign him as an Undrafted Free Agent. Here’s where an Owner stuck his nose in and it didn’t turn into a mess. Jed York asked the Draft Room if they liked the kid so much why take a chance on him signing elsewhere. Turns out he had an offer sheet in front of him from another team unbeknownst to John Lynch and his crew, including Adam Peters. So, they changed tack and drafted Purdy.

His success is a data point in the indictment of the drafting process. He was the 9th-QB selected. Ready for the list of names selected above him? Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Chris Oladokun, and Skylar Thompson. Purdy has thrown 97-TDs. The whole rest of the lot combined have thrown 76-TDs. How does the whole League miss out on this guy? It really shows how capricious the whole Drafting process is.

Finally, on Defense the numbers in terms of Sacks, Interceptions, and Tackles-for-loss don’t wow anyone. What they do is keep teams out of the End Zone. That will be Washington’s challenge tonight.

What’s Next?

The team will be off until November 1 when they are scheduled to play Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. There is talk the game will be “Flexed” into the afternoon because of the poor start by both teams. It’s very much in play that the two teams will have a combined record of 3-9-1. That’s not going to draw eyeballs. The options to flex in are limited by network claims to certain games. Indianapolis vs Jacksonville looks to be the only candidate not constrained by network entanglements. Whatever the decision it has to be made by Close of Business tomorrow.

Washington beating the 49ers would shock the football world. It would also be stuck in the craw of certain journovermin who are salivating over a potential complete collapse for the WFT. It would also allow the team to get back to just the business of football. That’s plenty of motivation to go get it done.